Hamilton County remains a seller's market (3.5 months of supply), but conditions are clearly shifting toward more balance.
Year-over-Year (most telling trends):
· Inventory up significantly +32.8% (1,526 → 2,026 active listings); buyers have far more options than a year ago
· Closed sales up +19.2% - demand is still there
· Median sale price is flat to slightly down at $390,000 (-0.8% YOY) - the price appreciation era has stalled
· Seller concessions are up sharply: 47.9% of closings now include seller-paid costs, up 9 points YOY (median amount $8,000)
· 41.3% of sold homes required a price reduction before going under contract - up 2.6 points YOY
· Failure rate (expired/cancelled) DOWN to 28.4% (-3.7% YOY); this is a good sign for correctly-priced sellers
Month-over-Month:
· DOM improved nicely: 33 days → 28 days (-15.2%) - June picked up pace vs. May
· Closings up 7.6% MOM; a solid month
· Pendings dipped 7% MOM - slight demand softening heading into summer
The pricing gap is stark: Correctly priced homes sell in 8 days at 100% of list.
Overpriced homes take 113 days and net only 91.4% - a 3.5-month penalty and nearly a 9-point difference in final price!
(Zip codes 37402, 37403, 37404, 37406, 37408, 37450)
Downtown is the weakest submarket in the report and is firmly in buyer's market territory. These numbers stand out sharply compared to the rest of Hamilton County.
Year-over-Year:
· Inventory is up +47.7% (most of any area)
· Supply at 7.5 months - the only area in a true buyer's market (7+ months)
· Median sale price are down -8.8% ($329K → $300K) - actual price erosion
· Median DOM increased dramatically to 102 days (+137% YOY)
· 66.7% of homes that sold required a price reduction (+21.4% YOY)
· Closed sales DOWN -26.4% YOY - demand is retreating
· 52.4% of finalized listings failed (expired or cancelled) - up 9.4 points YOY; one of the highest failure rates in the region
Month-over-Month:
· Closings fell -29.1% from May to June — a sharp single-month drop
· DOM surged +191% MOM (from ~35 days to 102) — the market essentially stalled
· Price reductions jumped 30 points MOM to 66.7%
The bottom line for downtown: Sellers who entered at last year's prices are getting punished. The market is telling you prices need to come down 8-9% from peak, homes will sit over 3 months without the right pricing, and buyers seem to now have real leverage. Correctly priced, move-in-ready product can still move, but overpricing is catastrophic for downtown right now.
Downtown is a strong market opportunity for buyers. Hamilton County generally remains steady - deals are happening, but now, more than ever, pricing and good negotiation can really make a difference for buyers and sellers.
What today's market means for buyers, sellers and home owners
Whether you are a first time home buyer or have previous experience purchasing a home, Steve, Michelle & Parker's goal is to help each of our clients understand the market and navigate the process of buying or selling a home, and feel confident and at ease throughout the entire process.